Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.