A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
