Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The typical count of per-day murders per month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent government figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that homicide figures may not signal better countrywide security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen during these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has credited her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.